Copyright © 2005 by Thomas Gangale
A response to NH state Representative Jim Splaine's (D-Portsmouth) letter to the Price-Herman Commission and Chairman Howard Dean.
3 December 2005
Honorable Alexis Herman
Honorable David Price
Co-Chairs
Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling
Democratic National Committee
430 South Capitol Street, SE
Washington, DC 20003
Also
Honorable Howard Dean
Chair, Democratic National Committee
Dear Secretary Herman, Congressman Price, and Chairman Dean,
I read with great interest the letter addressed to you from New Hampshire State Representative Jim Splaine (D-Portsmouth) dated December 2, 2005. Although we can all appreciate the rhetorical flourishes with which Rep. Splaine and his fellow New Hampshirites make their impassioned pleas to keep their state's "first in the nation" presidential primary, there is a good deal less to these arguments than meets the eye. Some of you are lawyers, and of course Chairman Dean is a physician. On a conceptual level, the rules of evidence in a court of law are not all that far removed from the requirements for data to support a scientific hypothesis. One immediately sees that Rep. Splaine's letter contains neither evidence nor data, but merely obvious generalities such as the observation that his state has "fat people and thin people, gays and straights, people who are tall and those who are short." His letter is an opening and closing argument, or if you prefer, a hypothesis and a conclusion, and it is entirely devoid of anything in between.
However, being both an aerospace engineer and a political scientist, I will present the facts to refute Rep. Splaine's unsupported assertion that New Hampshire actually does look like America, and I will do it in a far shorter letter. In fact, I will simply present two tables and let the facts speak for themselves, which come from the U.S. Census Bureau:
Table 1: Ethnic Demographics
African Hispanic
American Asian or Latino
New Hampshire 0.7% 1.3% 1.7%
American Plan
1st-Round 11.2% 2.2% 11.1%
Eligibles
US Average 12.3% 3.6% 12.5%
Table 2: Families Below Poverty Level
New Hampshire 4.3%
American Plan
1st-Round 11.2%
Eligibles
US Average 9.2%
There it is. New Hampshire is disproportionately white and disproportionately affluent. Its "first in the nation" presidential primary keeps people of color and poor people at the back of the bus.
In closing, if the Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling wishes to consider the plan offered by New Hampshire Democrats, I believe it would be instructive to compare it to the American Plan. I make the same claims for the American Plan that Rep. Splaine makes for the New Hampshire plan: it "will eliminate front-loading by spreading out the primaries and caucuses," and "all the diverse interests of America will be heard and will be part of the presidential selection process." However, there is one critical difference between Rep. Splaine's claims and mine: he can't prove them, and I can. The American Plan is based on solid political science, is supported by historical and demographic data, has been peer-reviewed, has the backing of a public policy institute devoted to electoral reforms (FairVote.org), has been endorsed by a national political organization (the Young Democrats of America), and is building grassroots support. On the other hand, the New Hampshire plan appears to be nothing more than an eleventh-hour effort to distract the commission.
Warmest regards,
signed
Thomas Gangale